Throne Speech Speculation

Well, as most politically-oriented people know, tonight, Governor General Michaëlle Jean will open the session of Parliament with a throne speech. With the Conservatives showing strong support, and the Liberals scattered about, the only parties who'd really show anything to gain would be the Conservatives and NDP. However, there is evidence to suggest that all three opposition parties want an election. The evidence for the Liberals isn't so convincing, however.

Harper seems poised to crack the Liberals right down the middle, grabbing the Centre-straddling Liberals as his own, (they're basically Red Tories anyway) and feed the rest to Layton's NDP, who are closing from the left. How will he do it?

"The same leader who is such an enthusiastic advocate of the climate-change treaty that he named his dog Kyoto, could face one of two extremely difficult choices."
-CBC

Here are the choices:

1. Accept Harpers Throne Speech, which will likely include a definite Kyoto killer (a big no-no for the guy who won the leadership of the Liberals with his supporters sporting green outfits and scarves), as well as many other things that are just un-Liberal. It's even possible that the speech could say that the decision on Afghanistan won't be made until the commission (headed by John Manley, one of those Centrist Liberals) gives its recommendations. The Harper government has indicated that they're in there for the long run.

2. Vote against the Speech (kind of obvious, I know) but this means that Canadians will go to the polls again, and with 7 provinces and territories (PEI, Newfoundland and Labrador, Ontario, Saskatchewan, Quebec, Manitoba and the North West Territories) going to the polls already in 2007 (well, Saskatchewan next month) and most of the others last year, it looks suspiciously like Canadians just don't want another election. So ground could be won by anyone just by convincing people that someone else is the bad guy.

3. The third option is for Dion to allow his party to vote their minds, which will definitely split them down the middle, the ones in provinces who have recently had an election (especially Ontario, their precious fortress) will likely try to avoid an election, and the result of this could be spectacular. Already unable to raise enough money, fighting publicly every day, and doing whatever they can do discredit any other party, the Liberals are well set up for a fall almost as large as the Conservative defeat in 1993. There is even speculation that no Liberal party would emerge from such a defeat, with the NDP and Conservatives splitting the spoils of victory. That leaves the possibility of an NDP Government in the future (shudder...)

Whatever one of these poisonous pills the Liberals swallow, the result could be spectacular.

"Van Dusen said whether the Liberals choose to accept the speech or not, Harper has set himself up for victory.

"In many ways it's a win-win situation for Stephen Harper," she said. "If the speech passes, he gets the agenda he wants. If the Liberals, in particular, bring [the government] down, he gets the election he thinks he can win."
-CBC

"The Liberals -- losing public support and trying to quell internal dissent about the patchy performance of leader Stephane Dion -- are not enthusiastic about an election. Insiders say the party organization is in calamitous shape."
-Reuters

With criticism abound, it could be an interesting few weeks as we see what comes of this throne speech. Harper surely doesn't want to look like a cynic, but everything on his side looks rosy. Dion, on the other hand likely doesn't want to lose his leadership yet, so his decision will be an important one. The NDP and Bloc, who seem to be attempting to hide widespread illiteracy amongst their ranks, have decided to vote against it. Before the speculation about it even started.. Even Dion isn't that crazy.

So, what will happen? Harper's likely going to push through a lot of his crime bills that the other parties couldn't stomach last time around, and try and reintroduce some other bills, as well as launch another new environmental plan, to try and appease the other parties, setting himself up for a gradual increase in popularity until the guaranteed election in October 2009, when he risks losing support if the economy slows between now and then. So, I'll leave you with a little humor before you grab your popcorn, beer, and tv remote and settle in for a night watching men and women mindlessly clapping away in a big, stuffy old building...

"The young Stephane Dion may never have suffered the indignity of an atomic wedgie at the hands of the school bully. If not, Tuesday's Throne Speech might give him some sense of the impotence and eye-popping pain."
-National Post